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Retail dating program

The committee's approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective.

As a result, we tend to wait to identify a peak until many months after it actually occurs.

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.

In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.

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